The top 15 endorsements
I agree with Mitch about one thing: newspaper endorsements don't really matter in the race for President.
But after I called him out on his post about the endorsement race, he moved the goal posts and decided he was really talking about the "top 15" newspaper endorsements. That got me curious. And if there's ever a chance I can prove a right winger didn't do his homework, I'll take it.
So I whipped up this little spreadsheet of newspaper endorsements in 2000 and 2004 by circulation (I used the figures from this page and GWU's endorsement list). There have been some changes in this list over the last four years, but I used the 2000 figures because not all the endorsements are in yet this year.
Mitch certainly has a point that the 15 biggest newspapers skew towards Gore. But it's by no means true that none of the papers in the top 15 endorsed Bush. The Chicago Tribune, Dallas Morning News, Houston Chronicle, Chicago Sun-Times, Arizona Republic, and New York Post endorsed Bush for a total circulation of 3,074,399. Top 15 papers endorsing Gore were the New York Times, Washington Post, New York Daily News, Newsday, Boston Globe, and San Francisco Chronicle for a total circulation of 4,061,497.
Humorously, the paper Mitch says would endorse Kerry over Bush even if "he'd been caught diddling Girl Scouts", the Los Angeles Times, does not endorse candidates for President. Also not endorsing are the two biggest papers, the Wall Street Journal and USA Today, for a total circulation of 2,796,150.
There you have it. Six of the top 15 papers endorsed Bush and six endorsed Gore. The Bush-endorsing papers had over 75% of the circulation of the Gore-endorsing papers. It would be interesting to perform this calculation with all of the 2000 and 2004 papers but that would be a pretty large undertaking (perhaps someone has a link...?)
Now, as we're all agreed, newspaper endorsements don't make much of a difference. And in the case of the top markets, it's even more irrelevant, because most of these papers are in solid Red or Blue states (five papers in New York City alone!). The only top 15 paper that's in a swing state is the Arizona Republic, a Bush endorsing paper in 2000 and 2004.
posted by Luke Francl @ 1:20 PM |
| 
1 Comments:
Nice work Luke! Mitch actually used the phrase "top 15 markets" (not newspapers), which might result in a more confusing spreadsheet, but worth trying... I bet Editor & Publisher probably did some research on that very point somewhere along the line.
But the larger issue is not how the endorsements affect the elections, or whether Mitch is clumsily evading facts to escape the non-points that he isn't making. The real issue is that the Fourth Estate -- which included many Bush supporters in 2000 -- is now coming down hard on a failed Bush presidency.
And let's not forget that Bush's own hometown paper, circulation 400 or something, is also a "switcher". If even your own neighbors can't endorse you for President again, clearly something's gone awry.
Post a Comment
<< Home