The Bush Drag

A recent report from the Humphrey Institute's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance has Amy Klobuchar's lead over Mark Kennedy pegged at 16 percentage points (52 to 36 percent). Republicans are straying more from Kennedy than Democrats are from Klobuchar, and Independents overwhelmingly support Klobuchar (49 to 27). While those numbers are slightly remarkable, I thought their explanations for this wide margin were even more interesting. First, the Center partially attributes these numbers to "Bush Baggage" -- President Bush's unpopularity is rubbing off on Kennedy and working in favor of Klobuchar. (They note, however, that this "Bush Drag" isn't affecting the gubernatorial race in the same way.)

Second, the Minnesotans surveyed ranked Iraq as the nation's most important issue, an issue on which Klobuchar is out-performing Kennedy, according to the Center. (Forty five percent of those surveyed chose Iraq as the most important issue, completely obliterating any domestic issues. Strange.)

Finally, there is a huge gender gap that plays to Klobuchar's advantage. While Democratic women candidates normally do better among women voters, Klobuchar's lead among women (26 points) is extraordinary. And this despite any significant outreach to women voters. (At least as far as I could discern. While I know Klobuchar's pro-choice, she certainly hasn't appealed to me as a voter interested in women's rights.)

One last note: Klobuchar's advantage is not transferable to Mike Hatch. Thirteen percent of those planning to vote for Klobuchar are also planning to vote for Tim Pawlenty. For those who want to know more about local elections, I'd recommend the Center's Elections Projects site, as well as their Smart Politics blog. They're still both works in progress, but you'll find little analyses and nuggets of info not available anywhere else.