10/28/2004

The prospect of democracy through litigation

Shake that bag of bones out on the table. What does the future hold on Nov 2?

According to John Dean, former counsel to Richard Nixon, it's a river of post-election litigation.

There are variables that could alter Dean's outcome. For one, I don't trust the polls at all. Gallup consistently over samples republicans. Most of them show fluctuating numbers a point or two around the baseline for either candidate. None of them show a large young voter turnout, the diminishing ability of pollsters to contact voters, cell phone owners, or corrects for an engaged minority turnout. Any combination of these would result in a decisive Kerry victory. It's the most likely outcome, in my opinion.

There are also variables that could break for Bush. The Christian base could turn out in force; they could win the GOTV battle in rural red and purple states; security moms could turn out to be real. Statistically, it isn't as likely, but it could happen.

If it isn't decisive, then as Dean says, Rove will sue. That would surely be a miserable outcome for all of us.

PS It is interesting to note Dean's forthrightness surrounding the GOP's strategy of voter and vote supression.

2 Comments:

At 1:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You make a good arguement that the polls may not reflect what is going to happen. Many of the issues you raised on both sides are real unknowns.

I think you used the word statistically when you meant to offer your opinion though. (You didn't offer any statistics to support it.) The closest thing to objective data is the polls and you indicated they weren't trustworthy. Kind of unclear.

More to the point though, I think you falsely assume that either one or the other of these cases will come to pass and that if they do come into play they will upset the expected result.

I think (IMHO) that you are correct to some degree in all these observations.

There may be a slightly larger young voter turnout that may be offset by a stronger than expected turnout of the christian base. A lack of cellphone representation in polling may be offset by materialization of "security moms." Strong minority turnout offset by effective TV ads in contested states.

This sort of offset scenario seems more likely than any one (and none of the others) or even all on one side and none on the other.

 
At 5:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Forget evangelicals, a lot of us christians are voting for Kerry! :)

"The righteous care about justice for the poor, but the wicked have no such concern." Proverbs 29:07

 

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