Too Soon to Call 2008?
Sure we don't even know who the candidates will be, but Washington, D.C. journalist Louis Jacobson already has a specific prediction for the 2008 presidential election: it all may come down to Ohio's 20 electoral votes -- again. Based on an analysis of the 19 "purple states" and on the assumption that traditionally safe Republican and Democratic states stay in their respective camps, Jacobson claims there are just three toss-up states: New Mexico, Iowa, and "the kingmaker" Ohio. Jacobson claims there is reason for Democrats to be optimistic regarding Ohio (and the election in general), but he remains cautious. As he should, seeing as how there's still over a year to go.
How is Minnesota classified in this analysis? We are "leaning Democratic," which means the state has "consistently voted Democratic in recent elections, but has a viable Republican Party and enough dissatisfaction, particularly on economic issues, to make voters slightly less predictable." In his final analysis our 10 votes count for the Dems, and that seems a likely scenario.
Who else is excited about the future onslaught of colorful electoral maps?
posted by Sarah D. @ 9:53 PM |
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1 Comments:
Jacobson points out the problem with the current system. There only a handful of states that matter in presidential campaigns. If you don't live in one of them, you become irrelevant.
What we need to do is change the system. If we went to a national popular vote, then candidates would compete for every vote as opposed to selected states.
I came across an effort to do just that. There was a NY Times editorial as well as one in the Star Tribune. It's called National Popular Vote and they are sponsoring bills in more than 40 states although none yet in Minnesota.
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